Ask an expert Q&A: European CLO market outlook

November 15, 2023

Learn about the CLO landscape in Europe, how it’s weathering economic turbulence and why there’s reason to be optimistic about what lies ahead.

A collateralised loan obligation (CLO) is a tried-and-true technology when it comes to investing. It has endured the test of time and has shown impressive resilience – with stellar issuances even through the disruptions of COVID-19. CLOs became popular in the early 2000s, and they play a crucial role in the markets by providing financial institutions a means to securitise and transfer credit risk.

These complex structures can be sensitive to economic conditions and changes in credit markets. So, to explore the current climate of the European CLO market, we spoke with Arlene Allen, senior vice president and head of CLO Europe. Here are some of her expert insights based on what she’s seeing in the marketplace.

Q: How have CLOs evolved over the past few years?

The CLO is a complex and highly sought-after financial instrument that represents a type of asset-backed securities. CLOs are typically created as a collection of loans – mainly syndicated loans together with some high yield bonds – which are pooled together and used as collateral to issue new securities. These new securities are then, in turn, sold to institutional investors.

Through the years, CLOs have evolved in different ways to adapt to market conditions and regulatory changes. CLO managers books have grown significantly over time, and the CLO product has delivered impressive yields to investors in varying market conditions. “Between 2008 and 2019,” according to Bloomberg Law, “the leveraged loan market – more than half of which is packaged into CLOs – increased from roughly $600 billion to $1.2 trillion.”

The growth of non-bank lending in Europe following the financial crisis has prompted managers to explore both regulated markets and debt capital markets (DCM) when looking to drive additional yield. Managers with success in the CLO space have also been successful in launching loan funds, thus generating investor appetite and opportunities in the loan funds and private credit space.

With this shift, CLOs as unregulated products have become incrementally more regulated. And in 2011, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) was introduced to enhance investor protection and promote stable and orderly financial markets.

Q: How are macroeconomic factors impacting the European CLO market right now?

CLOs are designed to take advantage of the arbitrage between their own funding costs and the rates on the underlying loans that they purchase and parcel up.

Recently, macroeconomic conditions like rising inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical risk have been putting a squeeze on spreads. Narrowing spreads have significantly curbed CLO issuance in 2023 – particularly with sellers having difficulty finding buyers for the riskier equity tranches.

Larger CLO managers have been able to sell CLOs against this backdrop by leaning on captive equity vehicles (funds set up by managers to buy the equity tranches in their own CLOs). However, not all managers have these funds in place, which limits the number of CLOs that can be formed. Q4 2023 has seen a flurry of issuance on the back of slowing interest rates and inflationary pressures. However, in recent weeks, this window may have passed.

Leveraged buyout (LBO) and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) make up 50% of the CLO market. Activity in these sectors has also been off to a slow start this year due to the persistence of the same factors. Right now, they’re down 50% in terms of volume.

Q: Are regulations playing a role in this?

Capital adequacy requirements – for insurers under Solvency II and for banks under Basel IV – have created a more capital-intensive environment for sellers and clients in Europe, which has a ripple effect on liquidity. It causes higher hurdle rates, which in turn causes banks to step back from corporate lending, which in turn causes private credit lenders to step in and fill the gap and act as a direct competitor to banks.

Q: European CLO issuance has seen a decent dip this year. What does this mean for clients?

Overall, numerous factors are affecting CLO issuance. This means that warehouses need to be more tightly managed, and that CLOs are taking longer to build. We saw some warehouses get terminated due to lending commitments expiring. But now, we’re starting to see issuances increasing and a few new warehouses opening. There have been a lot of positive signs and optimistic indicators – it’s just a matter of timing.

At U.S. Bank, we’re a major player in the CLO servicing space. As managers look to issue deals in Europe – and for many of them, doing so for the first time – we have a lot of experience, expertise and insight to offer. We have the data to help them make informed decisions. We have the flexibility to move quickly. And we have a broad range of resources and solutions to meet their specific business needs.

Q: How has market volatility affected the CLO market?

The market has been in a volatile state due, in large part, due to a regional banking crisis that came to a head earlier this year. New CLO issuance in Europe was less buoyant than in the U.S., where it was up 30% year-over-year by the end of Q1 2023. Europe was down approximately 30% year-over-year in Q1 2023, reaching 6.7 billion euros with a similar level of decline in April. However, “five European new transactions came to the market in August,” according to Fitch Ratings, “bringing a total of EUR 3.7 billion of issuance in 3Q 23.”

Institutional investors have continued to support new CLO formation through the first half of 2023. This is evidenced by the long-term track record of low CLO default rates across economic cycles. It’s also evidenced by the steady performance of CLOs relative to the wider investment grade debt market as interest rates moved upwards in 2022.

Q: How do economic cycles factor in?

CLOs are designed to work through economic cycles. CLOs finance themselves by issuing floating rate notes, and the assets in which they invest have floating rates as well. This means that CLOs already in the market have been able to sail through the changing interest rate environment largely unaffected.

CLOs in reinvestment periods are especially well positioned. Reinvestment periods are timeframes agreed upon by investors during which CLOs can reinvest principal and interest proceeds generated from their underlying loan portfolios. CLOs within this window right now are benefiting from the opportunity to buy up discounted loans in the secondary loan market and boost returns.

Securing loans without this reinvestment advantage is prohibitively expensive at the moment, which is why so many managers are having a difficult time filling warehouses to issue new deals.

Q: How do CLOs compare to other corporate credit options?

CLOs offer good credit and stand out in the structured-product universe on a relative value basis. While arbitrage is now particularly challenging – pricing and relative value can certainly change quickly, as we’ve seen over recent years – timing is everything.

When compared to vanilla corporate credit, CLOs still look very attractive. For similar credit risk, BBB corporates are typically paying less than half the income of equivalent BBB CLOs. While CLOs have always traded wide to investment-grade credit, the basis between vanilla credit and CLOs still looks wide.

European CLOs have been one of the best performing asset classes this year. And generally speaking, European asset-backed securities have outperformed vanilla credit over the last two years due to its lack of duration. We feel optimistic that the current supply-demand dynamic should help keep spreads stable.

Q: What are your thoughts on interest rates and collateral and default risk?

After over a decade of zero interest rate policy, many business models don’t work with higher rates. Leveraged companies are most vulnerable to this due to their reduced cash flow post-rate hikes. Defaults have been at historic lows, however, it’s inevitable that this will increase with rising interest rates.

At U.S. Bank, we have the experience, reach and technology to navigate the mechanics of complex deals with transparency, consistency and unwavering quality. As new opportunities emerge in the European CLO landscape, we can help you understand some of the new legal and structural hurdles in this fast-paced market.

For more information about our European trustee solutions, visit our website or contact us.

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Make your business legit

How to test new business ideas

How to fund your business without using 401(k) savings

How to establish your business credit score

How a bright idea became a successful business (in Charlotte, North Carolina)

How I did it: Grew my business by branching out

Starting a business? Follow these steps

Costs to consider when starting a business

Business tips and advice for Black entrepreneurs

Tools that can streamline staffing and employee management

The moment I knew I’d made it: The Cheesecakery

Streamline operations with all-in-one small business financial support

Staying organized when taking payments

Planning for restaurant startup costs and when to expect them

Key considerations for online ordering systems

How to identify what technology is needed for your small business

How to get started creating your business plan

How one organization is funding equity in the Chicago area

How mobile point of sale (mPOS) can benefit your side gig

How does an electronic point of sale help your business keep track of every dime?

How a 13-year-old created a clothing line that reflects her passions

Checklist: What you’ll need for your first retail pop-up shop

8 ways to increase employee engagement

The costs of hiring a new employee

How to reward employees and teams who perform well

How to hire employees: Employee referral vs. external hiring

The role of ethics in the hiring process

Give a prepaid rewards card for employee recognition

5 steps for creating an employee recognition program

What you should know about licensing agreements

Tips for realtors to help clients get their homeownership goals back on track

4 steps that give your business an SEO boost

Small business growth: 6 strategies for scaling your business

Omnichannel retail: 4 best practices for navigating the new normal

Is your restaurant Google-friendly?

Healthcare marketing: How to promote your medical practice

Email marketing: 10 mistakes to avoid

Why ecommerce for small business strategy is integral

Opening a second location? Cloud-based POS is key to a smooth unveiling

How to expand your business: Does a new location make sense?

How small businesses are growing sales with online ordering

How business owners are managing during the supply chain crisis

Essential marketing tools for any business

Do you have the best Point of Sale for an internet outage?

Checklist: Increase lead generation with website optimization

5 affordable small business marketing ideas when you have no budget

4 restaurant models that aren’t dine-in

3 simple brand awareness tips for your business

The growing importance of a strong corporate culture

How a small business owner is making the workplace work for women

Rethinking common time management tips

5 tips for helping employees raise ethics concerns

5 principles for avoiding ethics pitfalls on social media

Why credit cards should be the first choice for business payments

Webinar: Leading through uncertainty: CFO Insights Executive Roundtable

The essential business tips for tax deductions

Technology strategies to complement your business plan

Strengthen your brand with modern POS technology

How to choose the right business savings account

5 questions business owners need to consider before taking out a loan

Leverage credit wisely to plug business cash flow gaps

How to establish your business credit score

How small business owners can budget for the holiday season

How increased supply chain visibility can combat disruptors

How Everyday Funding can improve cash flow

Does your side business need a separate bank account?

When to consider switching banks for your business

Common small business banking questions, answered

How to choose the right business checking account

What kind of credit card does my small business need?

Unexpected expenses: 5 small business costs to know and how to finance them

Meet your business credit card support team

How to make the most of your business loan

How to accept credit cards online

How jumbo loans can help home buyers and your builder business

How to apply for a business credit card

Do you need a business equipment loan?

Do I need a credit card for my small business?

Business credit card support

Business credit card 101

Break free from cash flow management constraints

8 Ways for small business owners to manage their cash flow

7 uncommon recruiting strategies that you may not have tried yet

6 common financial mistakes made by dentists (and how to avoid them)

5 ways a business credit card program can grow your business

5 tips to help you land a small business loan

5 tips for managing your business cash flow

4 small business trends that could change the way you work

3 ways to secure purchasing power

3 signs it’s time for your business to switch banks

3 ways to gain loyalty with your customers

In a digital world, Liberty Puzzles embraces true connection

How running a business that aligns with core values is paying off

How (and why) to get your business supplier diversity certification

Building a business with a great product and a greater purpose

How to build a content team

When small business and community work together

Use this one simple email marketing tip to increase your reach

The San Francisco bridal shop that’s been making memories for 30 years

Meet the Milwaukee businessman behind Funky Fresh Spring Rolls

Improve online presence your business

How a travel clothing retailer is staying true to its brand values

How tenacity brought Taste of Rondo to life

How four women pivoted amidst a pandemic

How a family-owned newspaper is serving its community

How Shampoo’ed is transforming hair and inspiring entrepreneurs

How Lip Esteem is empowering women

How Gentlemen Cuts helps its community shine

How Al’s Breakfast is bringing people together

Honey Luxury Beauté: growing a side project into an eye-catching beauty business

Community behind Elsa’s House of Sleep

Celebrity Cake Studio’s two decades of growth and success

5 ways to build your business through community engagement

3 ways POS data analysis can help define your brand

Your guide to smart money habits

A stress-free holiday starts now

Real Good

Protect yourself from financial exploitation

Managing your finances in the military

Guide for investing

Financial wellness webinars

Is your financial plan keeping pace with your life?

The tools you need to make your business boom.

Freelancer's tax guide: Simplify your filing process

Year end tax planning tips

Tips and tools for tax season and beyond

A guide to tax diversification in investing

Should I itemize my taxes?

How to be prepared for tax season as a gig worker

10 ways your income and assets can affect your taxes

Economic forecast: 3 things to know for 2024's 2nd half

Bull vs. bear market: What do they mean for you?

Why compound annual growth matters

5 questions to help you determine your investment risk tolerance

What types of agency accounts are available for investors?

What Is a 401(k)?

What type of investor are you?

4 times to consider rebalancing your portfolio

Saving vs. investing: What's the difference?

Start a Roth IRA for kids

Robo advisors vs. financial advisors: How are they different?

Non-retirement investing: Investment options outside of retirement accounts

Understanding yield vs. return

Investment strategies by age

Investing myths: Separating fact from fiction in investing

How to start investing: A beginner’s guide

How to roll over your 401(k)

How much money do I need to start investing?

How does an IRA work?

How do interest rates affect investments?

What are alternative investments?

ETF vs. mutual fund: What’s the difference?

Effects of inflation on investments

Do your investments match your financial goals?

7 diversification strategies for your investment portfolio

4 major asset classes explained

Improve government payments with electronic billing platforms

Benefits of billing foreign customers in their own currency

6 timely reasons to integrate your receivables

What is CSDR, and how will you be affected?

Turn risk into opportunity with supply chain finance

Third-party vendor risk: protecting your company against cyber threats

The password: Enhancing security and usability

ABCs of BEC

Webinar: Robotic process automation

Risk management strategies for foreign exchange hedging

5 Ways to protect your government agency from payment fraud

Proactive ways to fight vendor fraud

The latest on cybersecurity: Mobile fraud and privacy concerns

Hospitals face cybersecurity risks in surprising new ways

Government agency credit card programs and PCI compliance

Fraud prevention checklist

Fight the battle against payments fraud

Evaluating interest rate risk creating risk management strategy

Cybersecurity – Protecting client data through industry best practices

Cybercrisis management: Are you ready to respond?

Business risk management for owners of small companies

Best practices on securing cardholder data

BEC and deepfake fraud

Avoiding the pitfalls of warehouse lending

Authenticating cardholder data reduce e-commerce fraud

Why Know Your Customer (KYC) — for organizations

Post-pandemic fraud prevention lessons for local governments

How to improve your business network security

Complying with changes in fund regulations

Webinar: CRE technology trends

BEC: Recognize a scam

Why powerful online portals are tailor-made for the public sector

White Castle optimizes payment transactions

Ways prepaid cards disburse government funds to the unbanked

Unexpected cost savings may be hiding in your payment strategy

Transition to international ACH

The surprising truth about corporate cards

The future of financial leadership: More strategy, fewer spreadsheets

Tap-to-pay: Modernizing fare payments pays off for transit agencies and riders

Take a fresh look: mass transit is going places

Standardizing healthcare payments

A simple guide to set up your online ordering restaurant

COVID-19 safety recommendations: Are you ready to reopen?

Role of complementary new channels in your payments strategy

Restaurant surveys show changing customer payment preferences

3 reasons governments and educational institutions should implement service fees

Real-time treasury: How APIs enable finance teams to unlock legacy data

Instant Payments: Accelerating treasury disruption

3 ways to make practical use of real-time payments

Navigate changing consumer behavior with service fees

Modernizing fare payment without leaving any riders behind

Integrated payments healthcare benefits

3 benefits of integrated payments in healthcare

Creating the ideal patient journey

How the next evolution of consumer bill pay makes it easier to do business

Higher education and the cashless society: Latest trends

Three healthcare payment trends that will continue to matter in 2022

Meeting healthcare strategy goals with electronic patient refunds

Addressing financial uncertainty in international business

Enhancing the patient experience through people-centered payments

5 winning strategies for managing liquidity in volatile times

ePOS cash register training tips and tricks

Drive digital transformation with payments innovation

Digital trends poised to reshape hotel payments

Top 3 ways digital payments can transform the patient experience

Digital banking and cloud accounting software: How they work together

Demystifying ISO 20022

Making the cross-border payment decision: Wire or international ACH?

Managing cross-border payments in emerging markets

Webinar: AP automation for commercial real estate

Consolidating payments for healthcare systems

Can faster payments mean better payments?

Banking connectivity: Helping businesses deliver the easier, faster, more secure customer experience of the future

Rent payments: What’s changing for commercial real estate

Automating escheatment earns respected innovation award

Automate accounts payable to optimize revenue and payments

How AI in treasury management is transforming finance

Access, flexibility and simplicity: How governments can modernize payments to help their citizens

Want AP automation to pay both businesses and consumers?

Understanding and preparing for the new payment experience

Tech tools to keep your restaurant operations running smoothly

Safeguarding the payment experience through contactless

Payment industry trends that are the future of POS

4 benefits to paying foreign suppliers in their own currency

Managing the rising costs of payment acceptance with service fees

Increase working capital with Commercial Card Optimization

How to improve digital payments security for your health system

How real-time inventory visibility can boost retail margins

Escheatment resources: Reporting deadlines for all 50 states

Crack the Swift code for sending international wires

Cashless business pros and cons: Should you make the switch?

Webinar: CSM corporation re-thinks AP

Automate escheatment for accounts payable to save time and money

Webinar: Approaching international payment strategies in today’s unpredictable markets.

ABCs of APIs: Drive treasury efficiency with real-time connectivity

5 reasons to upgrade B2B payment acceptance methods

4 ways Request for Payments (RfP) changes consumer bill pay

Tech lifecycle refresh: A tale of two philosophies

Sophisticated investors reduce costs with block trading

Protecting cash balances with sweep vehicles

OCIO: An expanding trend in the investment industry

Green ideas: How sustainable finance benefits businesses

Empowering managers with data automation and integration

Employee benefit plan management: trustee vs. custodian

Choosing your M&A escrow partner

Alternative investments: How to track returns and meet your goals

Understanding the role of authorized participants in exchange-traded funds

Delivering powerful results with SWIFT messaging and services

Webinar replay - The view from Europe: UCITS and ETFs in a changing world

Maximizing your deductions: Section 179 and Bonus Depreciation

Colleges respond to student needs by offering digital payments

Work flexibility crucial as municipalities return to office

Why other lenders may be reaching out to your employees

Why Bond Issuers Should Consider a Successor Trustee

What’s the difference between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

Best practices for optimizing the tech lifecycle

Technology Financing

Tapping into indirect compensation to recruit foreign talent

Sustainability + mobility: Trends and practical considerations

Save time with mobile apps for business finances

4 benefits of independent loan agents

Optimizing treasury management

Treasury management innovations earn Model Bank awards

Digital processes streamline M&A transactions

Mortgage buydowns and subsidies in today’s talent-focused relocation policies

Middle-market direct lending: Obstacles and opportunities

Manufacturing: 6 supply chain optimization strategies

Managing complex transactions: what your corporate trustee should be doing

Look to your custodian in times of change

How RIAs can embrace technology to enhance personal touch

Crypto + Relo: Mobility industry impacts

CRE trends

Webinar: CRE Digital Transformation – Balancing Digitization with cybersecurity risk

Changes in credit reporting and what it means for homebuyers

Automating healthcare revenue cycle

Assisting transferees in a high mortgage interest rate environment

An asset manager’s secret to saving time and money

A checklist for starting a mobility program review

Why retail merchandise returns will be a differentiator in 2022

What corporate treasurers need to know about Virtual Account Management

Overcoming the 3 key challenges of a lump sum relocation program

How institutional investors can meet demand for ESG investing

High-cost housing and down payment options in relocation

For today's relocating home buyers, time and money are everything

At your service: outsourcing loan agency work

Travel

Pursue a passion

Celebrate a big event

Disclosures

U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust is a trading name of U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited, U.S. Bank Trustees Limited and Elavon Financial Services DAC (each a U.S. Bancorp group company). U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited is a limited company registered in England and Wales having the registration number 05521133 and a registered address of 125 Old Broad Street, Fifth Floor, London, EC2N 1AR. U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited, Dublin Branch is registered in Ireland with the Companies Registration Office under Reg. No. 909340 with its registered office at Block F1, Cherrywood Business Park, Cherrywood, Dublin 18, Ireland D18 W2X7. U.S. Bank Trustees Limited is a limited company registered in England and Wales having the registration number 02379632 and a registered address of 125 Old Broad Street, Fifth Floor, London, EC2N 1AR. Elavon Financial Services DAC (a U.S. Bancorp Company), trading as U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered in Ireland with the Companies Registration Office, Reg. No. 418442. The liability of the member is limited. Registered Office: Block F1, Cherrywood Business Park, Cherrywood, Dublin 18, Ireland D18 W2X7. Directors: A list of names and personal details of every director of the company is available for inspection to the public at the company’s registered office for a nominal fee. In the UK, Elavon Financial Services DAC trades as U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust through its UK Branch from its establishment at 125 Old Broad Street, Fifth Floor, London, EC2N 1AR (registered with the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales under Registration No. BR020005). Authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. In Luxembourg, Elavon Financial Services DAC trades as U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust through its Luxembourg Branch under RCS number B244276 with its registered office at 4, rue Albert Borschette, L-1246 Luxembourg, and is regulated and authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) as well as by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the CBI and the CSSF are available from us on request.

All banking services are provided through Elavon Financial Services DAC. U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited and U.S. Bank Trustees Limited are Trust Corporations and not banking institutions and are not authorised to carry on banking business in the United Kingdom, Ireland or any other jurisdiction.

U.S. Bank National Association is not responsible for and does not guarantee the products, services, performance or obligations of its affiliates.